1 Year Anniversary, October 7th
On the eve of October 7th, writing feels necessary, but not cathartic, so I will leave the poignant reminiscing to others. It’s already the 7th in Israel. They’ve begun reading the names of the dead; of the 101 remaining of the original 240 hostages; and to recount that day’s historic events. Today was also Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s 24th birthday. To his four American compatriots still in captivity- Omer Neutra, Edan Alexander, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen-I won’t eulogize today, rather borrow the words of Hersh’s mother Rachel and implore you to just stay alive. We have not forgotten you. We are coming.
I remain hopeful that the IDF can save the entire West, not just itself. Here’s what else I think about when I ponder the last twelve months:
New Commemorations: October 7th is my baby brother’s birthday. How do you reconcile a day of celebration with one of horror? I don’t know the answer, despite giving the question ample thought: my childhood best friend, Irina, was born on September 11th and there’s no sugarcoating the mixed emotions of that day. The recitation of names feels like a parallel experience and cuts me to the quick. Except in Israel, this is not yet a requiem for the dead. We still have family to retrieve.
Learning from Mistakes: I think about Jericho’s Gate, the high level, precise piece of hard-won intel that the IDF had about Hamas’ intentions. How was this ignored? Was it military arrogance or atrophy from the long period of quiet? Was it pure misogyny because the discovery was made and promoted by women? Or was it a simple miscalculation about the necessary mix of human and tech observation at the border? Regardless, Israel had the intel and they blew it. Like the movie GroundHog Day, I wonder what our world would look like if Israel hadn’t been caught unaware. Even if the clock reset after the attack, how would we leverage a “do over?” I’m not talking solely about technological or military maneuvers, for there are many, but PR ones: how could we keep the story from evolving from the Israeli victims of a brutal attack, to disparaging Zionists into colonialist oppressors who reaped what they sowed? It was a clever and calculated narrative change, enabled by long term, insidious investments in institutions of thought leadership. We’d have to go back years to untangle these roots and we still don’t know how deep they lay.
Harrowing State of Democracy: Outside parties continue to exert oversized influence. They have an agenda and the longer the time gap, the larger the knowledge disparity. I meet someone every week who has never heard of October 7th. I know we exist in social echo chambers, but how is this possible? This event redefined the lives of Jews and yet others are unaware it even occurred. Or, they’ve heard about October 7th, but claim skepticism or say it was a hoax. Jewish blood libels have been updated to include media control and the manipulative use of AI.
The Importance of Swagger: Despite ongoing problems at the UN, or once stalwart allies like France caving to internal Islamists, I would argue that things are looking up for Israel. It’s finally listening to itself and hitting its stride. Aside from people, which are clearly the most important thing, Israel’s main loss was its swagger. Its prowess used to dissuade potential trouble-makers before action was even necessary. October 7th demolished the perception of invulnerability. There are few things more dangerous than appearing weak in the Middle East. And there is much to be said about bullies only respecting (or fearing) other bullies. And how did Israel get its groove back? By accomplishing the greatest intelligence feat since WWII! The collateral damage from counter-terrorists missions was too broad? No problem, Israel targeted terrorists directly via the devices in their pocket (recognize the irony of the pelvic-area damage inflicted on terrorist who used rape as their weapon of war). What about an untouchable Hamas leader hiding with his stolen billions in Qatar? Nothing a bomb in his mistress's cottage couldn’t solve (this was one meeting the IDF knew he always kept). And Israel keeps coming. Just look at the elimination list the IDF shared with the UN last week. Blinken should cut Israel a check for outstanding bounties on thugs like Shukur and Nasrallah, who were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of US servicemen.
The Art of Distraction: Ever heard of BRICS? Grab a beer before you look them up. The stealth group has been steadily gaining speed. This coalition of countries wants to peg world currencies to the Chinese Yuan, not US dollar. This is the single most disastrous economic event that could unfold for the West, not just the US economy. So, while radical Islam is wreaking havoc everywhere: the Islamic Regime in Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, al-Shabaab in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria - the puppet masters are making parallel plays to undermine the financial system that supports our counterbalance in the West. Dear West, if you can’t write checks, then you can’t fight.
Fear the Power Vacuum: If the Ayatollah is unseated, there will be no wave of modern democracy to swoop in; even in its 1970’s heyday, it was far from a democracy. I fear the vacuum, like in post-Saddam Iraq or post-Qaddafi Tunisia. These are vastly different societies and economies than Iran, but leadership gaps operate like blackholes, sucking in everything in its path. And all roads to Iran are plagued with blights. One example is the long-thought-dead Hamza Bin-Laden, son of Osama. Tribal and religious lines used to keep militant groups separate, but Hamza has forged a new path the past couple years, methodically taking wives throughout the region, in an effort to unite varying militias. It’s the Genghis Khan strategy that continues to work well for conquering and uniting. There are scary players waiting in the wings, so as compelling as I find the Hamas and Hezbollah elimination lists touted by the IDF, I am forever wary of the heads that spring up in replacement.
Shattered Expectations: I never expected the UN or Red Cross to be vigilant in pursuit of the hostages. The kidnapped were predominantly Jewish and these bodies had already proven ineffectual or openly antisemitic. It’s the behavior of the US that has been unfathomable. Early support aside, its inability to hold parties accountable has cast a shadow across all of its Allied relationships. It has permanently dented our armor. And it’s made Jewish lives expendable globally. It is open season on every facet of Jewish life: there are protestors outside synagogues, Jewish organizations and business, on school campuses, and in the streets. Openly walk around any city’s streets with a Magen David necklace and ask yourself if you feel safe, then tell me if I’m wrong. I’m not.
The Cycle of Grief: I question how many times have I looped the 7 Stages of the Grief Cycle since October 7th? How many times have other Jews tread this path, individually or collectively? I am currently holding steady at anger, and more than happy to keep bargaining and depression at bay. This should not prove difficult given tonight’s news: a missile struck Haifa, demolishing a road by my in-law’s house. I’ve driven this stretch so many times that I could find my way from Ben Gurion Airport to Haifa with my eyes closed - and the final stretch would always be on this road.
Importance of Israel: This is exactly why the re-establishment of Israel was such a watershed historical moment: it gave us a safe homeland. Hamas and Iran have never minced words about their intention to destroy Israel. October 7th might have been a surprise, but not their hate. The real surprise was how Western governments, or even neighbors and now-former friends, turned. It was recently unthinkable that another Holocaust could happen, but we now know it’s possible. Israel and the IDF provide all Jews the ultimate backstop. Its very existence is irrevocably linked to the existence of each and every individual Jew.
While I’m upset about the vitriol in the West, and the war in Israel, I caution myself to keep perspective: these are actually micro-events, churning in a larger, unruly sea. The waters are filled with distractions. We must remain focused on the wave of radical Islam barreling towards us. That is the macro! Israel is simply the first stop on its world domination tour. I pray that we do not lose sight of the big picture.
I end each letter with Am Yisrael Chai (the people of Israel live), because despite everything that’s happened, the Jewish people are still standing. May Gd grant us a complete and unequivocal victory in the coming year, to right the wrongs of October 7th, and to bring our family home.
Kelly