Realpolitik 3/12/24
While in High School, I spent time in Nizhny Novgorod (then known as Gorky), right after the Soviet Union had crumbled. I have strange recollections of this time: copious amounts of underage drinking, the decadence of procuring an actual banana, the “call centers” one visited to access foreign phone lines to the West (where indignant operators didn’t bother to stifle their noises, since one assumed surveillance) and the re-release of Bulgakov’s Master and Margarita after decades of banning (a must read!)
It was a strange and exciting time. It was also the first time I heard the name Yuri Bezmenov. He had been a senior KGB agent, in charge of subversion and misinformation, whose job was to brainwash the foreign diplomats visiting Moscow. Though he had defected in 1969, his traitorous story recirculated in the mid-1990’s after his death, when bashing him on Soviet news briefly became de rigueur. Bezmenov claimed that the USSR (now Russia) had a long-term goal for subverting the West, in four stages:
Stage 1 Demoralization: To undermine the moral fabric of a society, eroding its values, traditions, and institutions. It aims to instill a sense of disillusionment and hopelessness among the population. The process can take years or even decades and involves spreading propaganda, promoting moral relativism, and attacking traditional institutions like family and religion.
Stage 2 Destabilization: The focus shifts to destabilizing the key institutions, creating economic, social, and political instability. By fostering discord among different groups, it hopes to weaken the government's ability to maintain order and stability. The goal is to create a sense of chaos and uncertainty, making the people more receptive to radicalism.
Stage 3 Crisis: As destabilization progresses, crisis ensues and the existing “system” becomes unsustainable. This could manifest as economic collapse, political turmoil, or social unrest. The crisis serves as a catalyst for further radicalization and can pave the way for revolutionary change.
Stage 4 Normalization: In this final stage, the radical ideology or system that was previously subversive becomes normalized and accepted by the population. A new order is established, and dissent is suppressed through censorship, propaganda, and coercion. The society undergoes a fundamental transformation, and the ideological goals of the subversive actors are achieved.
Confirmation of a Soviet plan was not a watershed moment - however, Bezmenov’s claim that “the great brainwashing” was well underway, was a big deal. I saw one of his old interviews a couple years back, but my memory wasn’t jogged until the scandal broke about foreign funding in US school. What foothold did the Soviets use to infiltrate the US? Schools. Marxist and Leninist ideas were slowly introduced to our schools, where they would be ingrained in children. Soviet agents would not lead the project in perpetuity, rather it would be Americans, with whom these Communist ideals had taken hold, that would indoctrinate future generations. The goal was for the cultural shift to be so subtle, that over the course of several decades, Americans would not realize they had succumbed. Indoctrinated youth would then propel this message into the workforce and larger US society.
One could easily argue that Bezmenov was lying; or that the story itself is pure misdirection; or about which of the four stages the US is experiencing; or if our cultural change is just a natural societal evolution. But the cultural shift does feel palpable, particularly in US schools. And given what we know about foreign funding to Universities, confirming that subversion via education was the goal is unsettling. The fact that Russia is not explicitly at the top of the foreign donor list is inconsequential. Putin is a master of realpolitik, just read anything by Fiona Hill. The enemy of his enemy, and all that. Recall Syria, anyone? And it’s certainly no coincidence that Hamas is armed with Russian Kalashnikovs, which they received from Iran. In Gaza last month, a soldier told me that the sound of the AK-47 is so different from the Uzi’s used by the IDF that a soldier can tell which side was shooting just by the sound of the bullets - that’s how ubiquitous these Russian guns are with Iran’s proxies.
Cold War strategy wasn’t just about overthrowing adversaries, but broad ideological undermining. And in that respect, Russia, China, and their date’s third wheel, Iran, could offer the world a Masterclass. While we’re focusing on the wars in Israel and Ukraine (ignoring Nigeria), and our November election, there are big changes underway to the old world order: Sweden joined NATO and now has protection under Article 5, Europe admitted it has almost completely depleted its munitions stockpile via Ukraine donations and will need two years of serious focus to replenish (they are essentially without bullets), and Russia is pondering nuclear capability in space. The latter would immediately and completely upend the balance of power that has existed since the end of WWII. This sounds like a B-grade film, where the villains actually win and divide their spoils into vast spheres of influence. I would greatly prefer it all played out on a TV screen that I turn off, then in real life.
Am Yisrael Chai
Kelly